Ore to Ordnance: Disrupting Russia's Artillery Supply Chains

Artillery has become the defining weapon of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accounting for more than 70% of Ukrainian casualties. Disrupting the supply chain that sustains this capability is critical to Ukraine’s defense. This report provides a detailed analysis of Russia’s artillery supply chain, tracing its dependencies from raw materials like iron ore and sulphuric acid to advanced components such as computer numerical control (CNC) machinery. The findings reveal significant vulnerabilities that Ukraine’s Western partners can target through sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and other coordinated efforts to disrupt Russia’s war effort.

The report draws three key conclusions:

• While Russia’s artillery supply chain is complex, it remains dependent on imported materials and components, such as CNC machines and chromium, which present opportunities for disruption.
• The supply chain exhibits redundancy, meaning partial disruptions—like the removal of key ammunition producers—may not significantly degrade production without a broader, coordinated strategy.
• Although Russia’s defense industry is expanding with major upgrades to production facilities, it faces substantial challenges, including personnel shortages and failing infrastructure, which Western efforts can exploit to delay or degrade its growth.

To effectively counter Russia’s artillery production, the report recommends a focused approach targeting these vulnerabilities, particularly those outside Russian borders. By impeding access to critical imports and leveraging corporate compliance to enforce sanctions, Ukraine’s allies can significantly weaken Russia’s military capacity. This window of opportunity is narrow, as Russia continues to expand its industrial capabilities, but decisive action now could save lives, diminish Russia’s battlefield effectiveness, and reduce the broader threat its defense industry poses to global stability.