Brothers in Arms: Estimating North Korean Munitions Deliveries to Russia

New analysis by the Open Source Centre (OSC) and Reuters provides the first detailed open-source estimate of North Korea’s munitions deliveries to Russia, identifying at least 64 shipments between August 2023 and March 2025. The deliveries were carried out by four Russian-flagged vessels: Angara (IMO 9179842), Lady R (IMO 9161003), Maria (IMO 8517839), and Maia-1 (IMO 9358010).

Using hundreds of satellite images, 3D modelling, and analysis of munitions and crate configurations, OSC estimates that these ships transported over 15,000 containers likely containing between 4.2 and 5.8 million munitions, including 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells and 122 mm rockets. This supply has become a critical enabler of Russia’s sustained artillery fire in Ukraine.

Evidence suggests these containerised munitions are shipped from North Korea’s port of Rajin to Russia’s Far East, then transferred by rail to ammunition depots closer to the frontline. With an estimated cadence of 750 containers per month—equivalent to roughly 600,000 to 783,000 munitions per quarter—North Korean support has likely eased pressure on Russia’s defence industry and extended its capacity to wage high-intensity warfare.

The North Korean munitions pipeline presents a significant strategic challenge. By enabling Russia to maintain its offensive momentum, it undermines the effectiveness of Western military assistance to Ukraine. If left unaddressed, this flow of arms could tilt the battlefield further in Moscow’s favour and accelerate broader security risks across both Europe and East Asia.